Tampa real estate market enters a more selective phase

Tampa’s commercial real estate market is still growing. But the pace is changing.

After several years of rapid expansion, the market is entering a more selective phase, according to Lisa Jesmer, Florida market leader for Avison Young.

“Tampa continues to attract people and businesses,” Jesmer said. “What’s different now is how carefully deals are being evaluated.”

Jesmer oversees Avison Young’s operations across Florida, including Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Miami.

She said Tampa remains one of the most active markets in the state, even as investors and tenants slow down to reassess pricing, risk and long-term value.

Growth is still driving demand

Jesmer said population growth remains the core driver.

She cited estimates projecting roughly 400,000 new residents in the Tampa region by 2030.

That influx continues to support demand across office, industrial, retail and health care real estate.

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“Tampa checks a lot of boxes,” she said. “A diverse job base, lifestyle appeal and continued in-migration from other states.”

That demand is still showing up on the ground. Jesmer said Tampa is one of the few Florida markets where office leasing activity continues to increase, even as office demand softens in many peer cities.

“That matters because tenant movement keeps buildings active and rents supported,” she said.

Industrial cools to a steadier pace

Industrial real estate, which surged during the post-Covid boom, is beginning to normalize.

Jesmer said the slowdown many are talking about is better described as a return to historical levels of activity.

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“Industrial saw such an outsized spike that what we’re seeing now feels like stabilization, not decline,” she said.

For investors and owners, that means underwriting assumptions are tightening. Deals are still happening, but pricing expectations are more disciplined.

Retail traffic returns

Retail is another area showing renewed strength.

Jesmer said institutional investors are leaning back into retail assets as population growth supports foot traffic and leasing activity.

“We’re seeing people return to malls and shopping centers,” she said. “That shift is translating into more leasing and more sales.”

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She noted recent large portfolio transactions in Florida as a signal that investors are regaining confidence in the sector.

That matters because stabilized retail centers can support longer leases, stronger tenant credit and improved financing terms.

Capital is more cautious

While transaction volume is increasing, Jesmer said investors are spending more time on due diligence.

Off-market deals are harder to find. Properties coming to market are being closely scrutinized for deferred maintenance, insurance exposure and capital needs.

“Buyers want to know exactly what they’re walking into,” she said. “Surprises are expensive right now.”

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That scrutiny is also leading to more court-appointed and specialty sales as loans mature and some owners struggle to refinance.

Jesmer said those transactions require expertise and patience but can present opportunities for buyers who understand the process.

Health care emerges as a key focus

Looking ahead, Jesmer said health care real estate will be one of the most active areas in Florida in 2026.

As Florida’s population grows and ages, demand is increasing for medical offices, outpatient centers and health care uses within retail environments.

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“We’re seeing more health care providers move into retail centers,” she said. “They sign longer leases and bring strong credit, which benefits landlords and investors.”

Tampa, with its large hospital systems and regional medical presence, is well-positioned for that growth.

“There’s a lot of land being acquired and repositioned for health care use,” Jesmer said. “That trend is just getting started.”

What it means for Tampa

Jesmer said the market’s next phase is less about speed and more about judgment.

Growth is still there. Capital is still active. But the winners, she said, will be those who understand the details and plan for long-term performance.

“Tampa is moving from expansion to execution,” she said. “That’s a healthy place for a market to be.”