Tampa’s skyline is rising, but according to one of Florida’s most active urban developers, the city’s luxury condo market is still closer to the beginning than the peak.
Ed Jahn, senior vice president of Kolter Urban, says Tampa today looks a lot like downtown St. Petersburg did ten years ago, before large-scale residential development reshaped the city’s core.
“If this were a nine-inning game, Tampa is probably in the second or third inning,” Jahn said. “There is a long runway ahead.”
That view matters for Tampa Bay business leaders, investors and companies evaluating long-term growth across the region.
Residential development often signals where demand, capital and population are heading next.
Learning from St. Petersburg’s playbook
Kolter Urban entered downtown St. Petersburg shortly after the last real estate downturn, when the area had limited residential density and little street-level activity.
“We bought an entire city block, and people questioned why,” Jahn said. “They did not see the demand forming yet.”
Over time, that early bet reshaped the market. Kolter Urban has delivered more than 5,600 luxury residences across Florida and Georgia, investing more than $7.8 billion in completed and active developments.
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On Florida’s west coast alone, the firm has invested more than $3.2 billion.
In St. Petersburg, Kolter Urban’s projects include ONE St. Petersburg, Saltaire, The Water Club at Snell Isle and Art House St. Petersburg, now being delivered.
In Tampa, the firm is developing ONE Tampa, a 225-unit luxury condominium tower slated for delivery in 2027.
In Sarasota, Kolter Urban recently topped off The Ritz-Carlton Residences Sarasota Bay and is advancing additional waterfront residential projects.
Restaurants, retail and offices followed. Downtown St. Pete expanded outward, block by block.
Jahn believes Tampa is now in that same early phase.
“You have strong employment growth, major companies in Tampa Bay and a growing interest from buyers across the country,” he said. “Those fundamentals support long-term residential demand.”
Why luxury buyers are choosing urban living
Kolter Urban’s buyers tend to fall into two groups.
Older buyers, often 50 and up, who want convenience. Younger professionals who want proximity to work, dining and entertainment.
Both groups value a lock-and-leave lifestyle.
“They do not want to worry about maintenance,” Jahn said. “They want walkability to restaurants, sports venues and downtown amenities.”
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In Tampa, that lifestyle is becoming increasingly attractive as more companies relocate or expand their presence in the city.
A stronger employment base brings executives, founders and business owners who want housing options that match their schedules.
This shift is gradually pulling demand away from traditional single-family homes toward urban condominiums.
Designing around how people actually live
Jahn says Kolter Urban does not design projects based solely on trends. The company relies heavily on conversations with buyers and realtors across markets.
Those insights influence everything from floor plans to amenities.
Buyers increasingly want thoughtful layouts, en suite bedrooms and shared spaces that feel useful, not excessive.
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Amenities like pools, simulators and on-site food options are added selectively.
“If you add things people do not want, you only push prices higher,” Jahn said. “That does not serve the buyer or the market.”
That discipline becomes especially important in high-rise construction, where costs per square foot are significantly higher than single family development.
Price point remains the biggest constraint
Despite growing demand, affordability remains the biggest challenge in luxury condo development.
“It costs much more to build a high-rise than a single-family home,” Jahn said. “That automatically narrows the buyer pool.”
The goal, he says, is to deliver a high-quality product without overshooting what the Tampa market can realistically support.
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“We are a for-profit company,” Jahn said. “But success comes from delivering value at a market-driven price.”
That balance is what allows projects to succeed across multiple Florida markets, not just the most established ones.
Density drives downtown growth
Jahn also points to density as a key factor in whether downtown districts succeed.
Retail, restaurants and services need residents to survive. Without enough people living nearby, even well-designed developments can struggle.
“Businesses follow rooftops,” he said. “You cannot build the destination before the population arrives.”
As more residential projects come online, Jahn expects Tampa’s downtown core to expand outward, similar to what happened in St. Petersburg over the past decade.
A long-term view of Tampa’s growth
For Kolter Urban, Tampa is not a short-term opportunity. It is a market still defining its urban identity.
Jahn expects continued expansion over the next 10 to 20 years, driven by population growth, corporate relocation and evolving buyer preferences.
“Tampa is still early,” he said. “The fundamentals are there, and the city is just getting started.”