David Moyer has spent more than 20 years working inside Tampa Bay’s real estate market. As Executive VP of Developer Services at Smith & Associates Real Estate, he manages sales for new construction and existing multifamily projects across Tampa and St. Petersburg.
Looking ahead to 2026, Moyer does not see volatility. He sees definition.
“We just don’t see too much dramatic change,” Moyer said. “I think things are going to be steady and consistent.”
That steadiness, he said, hides meaningful shifts in where inventory is coming from and how buyers are thinking about luxury.
St. Petersburg enters a new phase
St. Petersburg is about to experience something it has not had before. New condominium inventory that is finished and ready for buyers to move in.
Projects like 400 Central and Art House are delivering completed residences instead of forcing buyers into the resale market.
“Buyers will have opportunities to buy move-in-ready condos, which has never really been the case,” Moyer said. “Most developments haven’t had inventory.”
That shift gives buyers more choice and puts pressure on existing buildings to compete.
At the same time, St. Petersburg is welcoming its first true luxury-branded residence, Waldorf Astoria Residences.
“This is the first luxury branded residence for downtown St. Pete,” Moyer said.
Branded residences, Moyer said, raise the level of the product through higher-end interior finishes, services delivered with the home and professional management tied to a global hotel brand.
He said branded residences attract buyers who recognize the name before the location.
“A brand like Waldorf will help New York and Chicago buyers,” he said. “They’ve seen it. They’ve touched it.”
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Moyer said most pre-construction buyers are local, but a brand like Waldorf helps attract out-of-market buyers who are more comfortable purchasing because the name is familiar.
Moyer believes Waldorf will draw more attention to the city, even from buyers who do not ultimately purchase there.
“It gives people a reason to check out St. Pete and fall in love with it,” he said.
Tampa’s supply stays tight
Downtown Tampa is in a different position. Very few new condominium towers are delivering in the near term.
“There’s just no new large delivery,” Moyer said.
That lack of supply is keeping prices stable and limiting swings.
“I don’t see too many price increases or decreases,” he said. “I think it’s going to be consistent.”
Projects such as Aqua at Westshore Yacht Club and Pendry Residences Tampa are moving forward in a market where new condo inventory remains limited.
Projects under construction like Pendry Residences Tampa benefit from that environment rather than competing against new inventory.
Primary buyers vs seasonal buyers
Moyer draws a clear line between the two cities when it comes to buyer behavior.
“Tampa is much more primary,” he said. “Buyers plan to live in this home most of the year.”
St. Petersburg attracts more seasonal residents, though not to the level of markets farther south.
“St. Pete is my home, but I have another home,” Moyer said, describing a common buyer mindset.
He said downtown St. Petersburg has long offered a more walkable, condo-centered lifestyle, while Tampa’s condo market historically felt more disconnected from everyday amenities.
That difference has shaped development. Tampa’s workforce and employment base keep it grounded as a year-round city, while St. Petersburg’s walkability and beach access pull second-home buyers.
As downtown Tampa grows, Moyer sees overlap beginning.
“Tampa is now competing more with St. Pete for that seasonal buyer,” he said.
Developments like Pendry and The Tampa Edition, he said, have helped shift that mindset by offering a “home as a hotel” experience, where buyers have access to hotel-style services at their residence.
Gas Worx changes perception
One project stands out to Moyer as a turning point for Tampa: Gas Worx.
“It’s going to push the boundaries of Tampa,” he said.
Rather than immediately flooding the market with condos, Gas Worx expands how people think about downtown.
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“I think people are going to start revisiting locations they might not have been looking at,” Moyer said.
That includes areas north of the Channel District that have historically sat outside buyer consideration.
What defines 2026
For buyers, Moyer sees opportunity in St. Petersburg.
“There’s never been a better time to buy,” he said, pointing to new inventory and increased choice.
For Tampa, the story is restraint.
“The market isn’t going to be too dramatically changed,” he said.
External factors like interest rates and recent hurricanes remain part of the landscape.
Moyer said buyers are increasingly avoiding neighborhoods with flood concerns, while areas viewed as more resilient are drawing stronger interest.
Even so, he does not expect sharp corrections.
“We’ve had tremendous growth,” he said. “Things are leveling.”
For Moyer, that leveling signals maturity. Tampa Bay’s luxury market is no longer emerging. It is established, measured and increasingly defined by choice rather than scarcity.
