Hillsborough County could lose nearly $367 million a year in property tax revenue under a constitutional amendment headed to Florida voters in November. County officials say the loss could force service cuts, layoffs and new or higher taxes, assessments and fees.
The revenue loss would arrive in stages. If at least 60% of voters approve the amendment Nov. 3, the homestead exemption for property taxes other than school taxes would rise from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027, affecting the county’s fiscal 2028 budget. It would rise again to $250,000 in 2028.
Hillsborough estimates the first increase would reduce annual property tax revenue by $248.6 million, or 15.7%. The larger exemption would push the loss to $366.9 million in fiscal 2029, a 23.2% drop from fiscal 2026 revenue.
Most of the loss would hit the county’s two general funds, which support countywide government and services provided specifically in unincorporated Hillsborough.
By fiscal 2029, the Countywide General Fund would lose an estimated $213 million a year. The fund serving unincorporated Hillsborough would lose another $130.3 million. The Library District would lose $21.2 million, while debt-service revenue for the county’s environmental lands program would fall by $2.4 million.
County Administrator Bonnie Wise warned that balancing the fiscal 2028 and 2029 budgets could require reduced services and layoffs, along with new or increased taxes, assessments and fees. Existing service backlogs could persist as Hillsborough adds residents and demand for county services grows, she wrote in her budget message.
The county compared the potential strain with fiscal 2008 through 2012, when an earlier round of property tax reform coincided with the Great Recession. This time, Wise wrote, the effects could be “more lasting.”
Related legislation would also narrow the maximum millage local governments could approve by a simple majority, which the county says would essentially limit future revenue growth to money generated by new construction.
A $13.78 Billion Budget Before The Vote
The warning comes as commissioners consider a $13.78 billion tentative fiscal 2027 budget Thursday. Of that total, $4.77 billion is operating spending. The rest includes capital projects, reserves, transfers and other funds.
Hillsborough enters the vote with AAA credit ratings and healthy reserves, according to Wise.
The Sheriff’s Office, Fire Rescue and other elected officers and agencies account for $1.147 billion in the fiscal 2027 budget, equal to 79% of the county’s $1.444 billion in General Funds property tax revenue. The Sheriff’s portion is $670 million, while Fire Rescue accounts for another $331 million.
Public safety already consumes 68.2% of the Unincorporated Area General Fund. Of its proposed $938 million budget, $324 million would go to Fire Rescue and $198 million to the Sheriff’s Office.
Shifting Property Taxes Toward Public Safety
The county has spent the past two budget cycles shifting some property tax capacity toward those services. Commissioners approved millage “swaps” in fiscal 2025 and 2026, lowering the countywide rate while raising the unincorporated rate by matching amounts.
Hillsborough proposes another swap in fiscal 2027: cutting the countywide General Fund rate by 0.1 mill and adding 0.1 mill to the unincorporated rate. For property owners in unincorporated Hillsborough, the changes would cancel each other out. Properties inside municipalities would see a net 0.1-mill reduction from the county.
The swap would move about $11 million into the unincorporated fund while taking $18.6 million from countywide revenue, a net reduction of about $7.6 million.
The fiscal 2027 budget includes $117.1 million in transportation spending from General Funds and Community Investment Tax revenue. Another $27.8 million would come from mobility fees, fuel taxes and grants. The money would fund road repaving, sidewalks, intersections, bridges and safety improvements.
Public-safety investments include land for future fire stations, the Sheriff’s Operations Center and 40 new Fire Rescue employees for rapid-response rescue units.
Those investments were planned before lawmakers approved putting the amendment before voters. Hillsborough had already expected slower growth in property and sales tax revenue and built the budget around one-time infrastructure and disaster-preparedness spending rather than expanding recurring costs outside public safety.