New national data shows Tampa’s multifamily market holding steady while other Sun Belt cities lose momentum.
A new report from Newmark found that multifamily returns reached 5.48% in the third quarter. Tampa came in higher at 6.5%, which puts the region above the national average and ahead of several fast-growing peers.
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This article breaks down the new data, explains what it means for Tampa Bay and outlines the main trends to watch in 2026.
What happened
Newmark reported that multifamily again outperformed every major property sector. The NCREIF All Property Index recorded 4.65%, which is lower than the multifamily average. Cap rates in the Core and Core Plus segments compressed, and transactional cap rates reached 5.63%. REIT implied cap rates landed at 5.23%.
The strongest returns came from West Coast markets with tight supply. San Jose led the country with 9.3%. Orange County, San Diego and San Francisco also posted results above 7%.
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Sun Belt performance was mixed. Houston posted 9%. Miami reached 8.4%. West Palm Beach delivered 7.3%. Other cities cooled. Austin fell to 2% after heavy construction. Phoenix posted 5.2%. Raleigh came in at 4.3%.
Tampa landed in the middle at 6.5%. This result outperformed Atlanta’s 4.6% and Charlotte’s 5.7%. It stayed close to Nashville at 6.1% and stayed ahead of the national multifamily figure of 5.48%.
These numbers show that Tampa avoided the steep decline seen in markets that added too much supply during the recent development boom.
Why this matters
Tampa’s 6.5% return points to a more stable period for local investors.
Three trends explain why:
- Tampa is starting to behave like a second-tier gateway market. Its return rate falls within the same range as New York’s 6.3% and Boston’s 7%. Tampa still benefits from more substantial migration and a more supportive business climate.
- Tampa avoided the correction seen in Austin. That city dropped to 2% after a large wave of new construction. Tampa added thousands of units during the same time but did not see a similar fall. Strong demand helped absorb new supply.
- The mid-tier apartment product is driving steady performance. Rent growth in Class B and renovated Class C properties has improved. These units continue to see the most consistent demand.
Tampa’s strength reflects population growth, job creation and a balanced development cycle.
What you should know
This report gives investors a clear set of takeaways.
Watch absorption rates in 2026. New units will open across the region. Performance in Brandon, Wesley Chapel and Westshore will show how deep renter demand remains.
Expect stronger results in mid-tier assets. Class B and renovated Class C units continue to lead the market. These communities hold the widest renter pool and provide more predictable returns.
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Review underwriting assumptions. Cap rate trends suggest more competition for high-quality assets. Tampa’s performance means spreads will tighten.
Keep an eye on migration and wage data. If population growth slows, rent pressure will ease.
What’s next
Tampa will see another round of lease ups early in 2026. The speed of those lease-ups will shape investor expectations for the rest of the year.
Three indicators to track include lease-up velocity at new projects in Channelside and Midtown, migration figures from local and state agencies and rent growth in Class B assets.
If renter demand holds steady, Tampa could rise into the top group of Sun Belt performers in the second half of 2026.
Takeaway
Tampa’s multifamily sector continues to show resilience.
The region sits above the national average and has avoided the sharp swings seen in other Sun Belt cities. Investors can expect steady conditions supported by strong renter demand.